Editor's note: br> May Day holiday, the focus network of real estate blog ring shook it, and many real estate experts and the researchers concluded on the holiday property market seems to have become more pessimistic. ? Guangzhou Han with well-known real estate experts. May the topic of our discussion today about who the property market Bo won? First of all would like to know, before you May the marketing strategy from the developer and the attitude of a buyer's market in the observation, then your holiday property is how to envision it?
Han with: the media do a lot of holiday homework, learned from the newspapers and online push the plate more than last year's May Day holiday. Since the policy change after the holidays, we are not very high expectations for the holiday I hope there is some recovery in May. from the popularity, sales point of view, does have some pick-up, nor is it particularly disappointing. My overall assessment, the May sales certainly better than the previous months, But compared with last year, the holiday is no way to compare.
lot of consumers and the media towards the property market this year, or look down the majority. more to say now is that prices will drop to 8,500 yuan / square meter, If this is the case, according to the present situation but also declined. There are two concepts, one refers to the lowest point is 8,500 yuan / square meter, but also a say 8,500 yuan / square meter average price throughout the year, these two completely different concepts. So I think we judge the market, from various angles and positions will have different conclusions.
now have the media that I belong to the wavering, and I really like this. Why ? to judge from the price, I think the price is still not sure that most consumers can afford to buy a house level; a very short time if consumers can afford a house down to the extent that collapse will affect the financial or the entire economy. So my attitude is: also tend to fall, but it is not too fast. if you can achieve such a goal is very difficult. I think, last year's price rise is a large explosion of demand-driven investments, and now investment demand or is stuck, or dismantling, only high-end customers, to support such a large supply of great difficulty. And, now market products and emphasis on high-end products, affordable housing in this price of the home-based needs are very small. how to be able to find in the short term to support a large number of buyers to reach the normal volume, this is a very difficult task.
my analysis of this situation, there are two options: one is re-time to loose lending policies or canceled, even loosening the appropriate investment buyers can not make all back, only a small part of the back, but you can look at the current price supporting. So now I'm on the appropriate government bailout , insulation, or the developers and the industry to make any kinds of judgments, as before, I will not stand in a confrontation. I may not say so, let people into the market at this time, because from my point of view speaking, I do not support the market, but I hope to have many people to the market. So, in a contradictory state, on the one hand want to make the property market down, and slowly fell back, but another On the one hand do not want to drop too fast, too fast, the overall economic, financial and real estate are not good. Now, even I find this rapid decline in housing prices or the call is not easy to avoid plummet , because they do not lower prices there is no way to find more effective demand. As this part of the middle class, and now I do not think there is a lot for the market for the purchase of their products. I am now going to mobilize them to buy a house, they can afford to buy it line.
Moderator: The property market is expected to include three main aspects, one is a popular how, the second is the wealth, the third is the actual volume. Han always expect you to May compared with the previous property prices months is high or low it?
Han with: I see some areas the decline in housing prices even lower than I expected some, such as words, Baiyun District, head over there 6, 7 the price prefix , so the price began to appear in that area; but there are some areas and not much decline, is still relatively high, as Baogang Avenue side, the price is still 11000-13000 yuan / sq m, the highest in the region when there is no higher than 15,000 yuan / square meter, so the degree of decline is not great, but flourished as a venue. However, I think agree that the location of people and now there is a gap between the price, like not afford.
the Pearl River Metro has some real estate is not very high position, but there are also individual properties is still relatively high. However, down to 10,006 yuan / square meter to 10,008 yuan / square meter will be a lot of people to buy, and if will not cut prices so few buyers.
Moderator: When you go to the May offer, you, with you after reading the actual gap between the situation you expected?
Han with: I see not a lot I only saw two or three plates, I think the disk is mid-range of real estate, I think the sentiment is still quite strong, said to have some real estate but also queue up to see, has not officially opened for sale to the extent that some properties such as Guangzhou Park over there, under the current pricing of 6,000 yuan / square meter, or even 7,000 yuan / square meter at this price can be purchased at the Baiyun Road, the results also go there to buy, they may be optimistic about the region, the Guangzhou Metro future, the old city and the Nansha in Guangzhou Asian Games Village, between, and the supporting facilities to improve. basically, and I had to judge about the original May be I did not feel particularly how, the emergence of a downturn, it is almost unlikely The.
transaction recovery is inevitable, but because it is from season to season. but May had finished, it will naturally into the off-season, 6,7,8 months are traditionally not very good selling season. I think the developers expect them to pick up the top a little high, consumers are also above expectations in the price a little high. Do not expect prices will fall much so fast, do not expect a great volume of short-term increase at a rate to how much, and now no one can say, accurate. I'm not particularly stressed, is not really booming financial Ding, because they are made out of the feel of conclusions, there is no data to support.
now exists both voice and views are not wrong, the last to use the facts speak. This number is more or less in the end, the Housing Authority figures show there are some lag, we need a few days to see April's volume. So now more painful, the stock market can know the actual daily trading volume, and now the house is registered transactions occur every day, according to the current means of statistics can be published each day real estate transactions, transactions registration and make up their own subscription have been lagging behind in time, and now lag a long time to publish again. Guangzhou is now in the information published, particularly real estate information is a serious lag in publication, with the first city title does not very consistent, we used to have done quite advanced in this respect, but now gradually falling behind, which makes us very bad for the market to determine.
Moderator: Do you think the holiday shortened but still good things in the property market ?
Han with: five hundred and thirteen days can not leave long-haul travel, and property inspection on a lot of people to learn real estate knowledge, update their philosophy of life, ideas and pioneering vision is a great help . I do not have data to support, in the end such a property inspection property inspection inside in the percentage of how many. There are many properties for sale are not allowed to set prices during May, is still in the stage of the subscription, but most say about a price range, but not sure This transaction will affect the real intention and will. I believe that the developers who now can not easily set the price too high, too high, then source is inherently limited, and finally win, to the last listen to the price run. Now price sensitivity is very high, we can see a lot of real estate adjustments in place to achieve his target group more agreeable price, sales will be very hot; but if the price slightly higher than this number, or your brand, visibility less, it is entirely two worlds, and a possible desolate, one is on the disc. For this situation, I did not understand it as the overall property market pick up or recovery of the phenomenon, because it kinds of phenomena are likely to experience each price level. For example there is a price the average line, you just below the average line will attract some buyers at this level over the purchase.
Recently, I prefer to use the dam effect explain this phenomenon, the first low-cost push plate Vanke, a large number of passenger Chung to them, in fact, the passenger is not the original group of Vanke, this part of the passenger are white-collar or high-end Jinling, in fact, a large number of white-collar workers still can not afford the real estate Vanke. In particular, the urban real estate, the original selling 18000-19000 yuan / square meter, Vanke sold 13000-14000 yuan / square meters, an unknown developer like him down price, consumers are still willing to buy their real estate Vanke. unless you lower than he can only meet him flat; you if you want to grab more customers, only less than he.
recent Express He's the strategy. Wang said had is completely return to a rational yet? have not, there are some gaps, but from a stage, Vanke had grasped the market opportunity, make the appropriate measures and preparation, no further reduction now. I that, they just express their attitude on the market, and many of the developers and professionals they want, at this stage if the stock market is bottoming reference, this is the bottom, the price should rebound.
but I think the market now or the lack of support for a large number of effective purchasing power, which is I have come to an objective analysis and views. This view is also necessary to support and validate the final data, and whether I'm not sure, I hope that at this stage on the property market transaction to have better performance, making the market not because volume is not good, but also to further reduce prices in order to attract buyers into the market. This is a double-edged sword, if you drop too much hate, then we do not dare to buy.
Moderator: May 看楼 people so much, why do not many people who shot or who have been shot and finally snapped. Han always you wrote in the blog: the developer must then price of money demand can be ineffective into effective demand, and why?
Han with: I saw this, is because as a developer of financial pressure as it is impossible to stop as the price of Vanke. Vanke has to grasp the market opportunity, return of a fully funded, has a deal with difficulties in the capital and conditions; But for many companies, in this win has not yet made a bargaining chip, in this case, difficulties in the future tense capital , they are pretty decent? this is life and death pass, you make life difficult for the enterprises are dead. This is about the same and war turning point, although this transition is peaceful, may not have guns, but you do not have money, and money not all take, and product sales can not, you will hardly survive. Vanke reason they maintain a high degree of vigilance, they experienced such a process; there are some companies began to develop after this process up, they did not try to to that storm, survival horror, may not be a sudden. real estate is no way out of the schedule, the real estate industry will always be a few winners.
now the real estate business like to say how many deaths there will be , Ren recently speaking at the Boao Forum: Real estate is a lot of the project company itself, is certainly dying. In fact, that is normal is also a large number of deaths registered enterprises, because the industry is only a few can succeed; because only they took industry law, they are more adept at the use of various resources, including interpersonal resources, land, materials, funds the operation so that they can become a leader. So the industry is not no one play in this game industry, this industry is not the threshold high, there are hundreds of millions of money to get into, but who can survive and thrive in this industry do? Vanke is drawing a lot of good characteristics and advantages of the enterprise, so they are in the market when making major change, they at least not wrong view, wrong even if it is not careful, he will promptly correct, and to be vigilant and take preventive measures also did not hurt. I find, the Vanke in 2006, a / 70 policies introduced, they were put forward policies to deal with cash is king, but later found not need, but the proliferation of funds, so they are high-profile expansion, but they are smarter than others, to finance the 200 billion last year , but also very good sales turnover of more than 500 million, the actual operating income of 300 million is outstanding, to seize the opportunity this year and sold more than 140 million, so quite a forward-looking companies.
Moderator: We now assume that Vanke is no price reduction, the property market will not occur such a situation it May?
Han with: for the things we do not a lot of empirical judgments, since the real estate development, a total of 30 years, but the real market operation is started from 1992 onwards. From this point of view, the real estate only through a multi-cycle complete. We look at the performance of the previous cycle, from high fever to the sudden cold, which is a very strong government intervention, the government tightening the taps were closed, no damn damn dead once and for all. Guangzhou office all that time off work, many developers are not sources of funding, because the gate of the bank of a country off, all stopped there. However, due to mainstream buyers at the Guangzhou group is not local, so very few local people are hurt, and only rich people early, and they are not mortgage a house, at most stages payment, banks have not been too much loss, but bank-owned real estate company to be a great loss, the bank claims get through the schedule, the failure to complete a particularly large number of projects.
it seems with the then certainly not the same situation, and now tightened monetary policy is not so tight as the year, only a modest tightening of the original size or will remain, only will not increase, the incremental affected; IPO in the market, but also affected capital affected the operation of this business, coupled with return of funds from the market affected, multiple pressures led to excessive expansion of the business will show a severely stretched resources, lack of funds. These companies want to correct, to adjust the difficulty is quite large, this expansion is a mistake that should not be overheating when excessive expansion movement, and now it can remedy the situation, this is hard to say, this is dependent on the further development of the economic situation and changes in our nation. very far away from the U.S., and the U.S. subprime lending crisis, the proportion of the total is not great, the amount of the impact of the parties now face the United States itself is not too large, we seem to have been greatly affected, especially the stock market is out nearly half of this effect than the much larger U.S. subprime effect, we have to form their own disastrous economic risk. just say, this effect is stop here, or can be re-adjusted return. I think the economy cycle changes will be accompanied by a big crisis, this is a symbiotic, interdependent. Now we have a market economy will inevitably be changes in the impact and influence of capital, leading to the affected stock and property markets and volatility. I found the stock market in Hong Kong and the property market is not fully synchronized, the stock market from two waves, a wave property market has not yet run its course. the property market from the financial crisis to the high-tech stock market changes, but also to the recent changes in the stock market and then to complete a change cycle, so this time we may see a relatively long cyclical changes.
as in previous years no matter what kind of government do not have the means to suppress the price way down, and now the Government has adopted many measures to prevent prices fell sharply, including the current supply of land, less than has been basically controlled. But this approach in turn will create a hidden future, the appropriate supply of land is to be guaranteed housing price is not vigorously pushed, have to shrink. If Vanke not cut prices, certainly there will be other companies cut prices, because they need to survive, if Vanke not price cuts, this round of price surges to two months to late, but this trend is inevitable , after all, the developer is to survive. but this is not the strength, diving caused a small developer, not a brand to take the lead developer of the largest low-cost measures, take the initiative.
Moderator: appeal more, we all speak Vanke is the But they take a very low-key strategy is to practice, you can not see nor do I feel. So, I think Vanke is still quite smart business. on their current push land prices, house prices have some quick success of the practice, the pursuit of short-term high-profit practice, I have some views, this is Vanke excesses of the previous two years there have been movements. However, the performance of the very wisdom of Vanke, great minds. I believe that this time they do not want to affect the market, but also not that property prices did not fall Vanke not decrease. they think they have done to do, enough of this, and now no further down, but sales will shrink and may Vanke, which also did not relationship, not the time to conduct strategic adjustments.
Moderator: We come back to look at the game May the power of property buyers and sellers, so far, they are what kind of situation is it?
Han with: I mentioned to have a point: It can not be said to enter a buyer's market, but signs of a buyer's market has been revealed. I also observed some of the industry peers, that they agree with my point of view, but we have to determine the direction of the results not the same. For example, I told Mr. Li Wenjiang determine the direction is not the same, he is optimistic, I am not very optimistic. But in our view on this issue is consistent, if the market may come to a buyer's market to enter a downstream channel must be, because if the uplink channel and then go back to the seller.
I recently observed, we even downwards so terrible? to now developers of capital, conditions, they again experienced such a cycle, then, is completely not lose. then R & F, Hengda are developed based on what is it? 1996,1997 years of these enterprises or small and medium enterprises, have experienced from 1997-2003 of years of development has become a large jaw, and have rushed to northern markets, and to the Northern Expedition. the property market should be like this cyclical changes, developers can also recuperate, consumers can properly raise interest rates, is one such form. Today there is a media made, Guangzhou again 5,000 / sq m, 6,000 yuan / square meters of houses this is not possible. But we see May in the central city to have a house in the first 6 characters push, although this number is rare, but this is entirely possible. from the previous estimates of the cost to get to it, developers can now profit is very high, space is still a great price.
Moderator: We have suggested that even if the price is still the Vanke profiteering, Kang Road, several projects that are public land.
Han with: But real estate development cycle is longer, usually several years before a project can develop a complete, labor costs capital costs are to be considered, but its value is not low profits, even in Liwan District Vanke sold 10,003 yuan / square meter or a high profit margin is almost close to one hundred percent. particularly in the Party developed as a developer, is a labor contractor being developed, and in the sea, Hengda, R & F, Hopson, then dry them and other two live, builders and developers can earn profits, they are quite good cost control . Guangzhou why what circumstances, what the market can win with them it is the knowledgeable.
feng shui has turned. If will enter a buyer's market, I think that consumers must have more say in to the greater. unless the overall situation reversed, and now the overall situation seems to have less co-Ren Zhiqiang, a speech at the Boao, provided that: If today's economy, or 11.9%, the house will rise like last year. The question is You can also maintain this growth rate it? rate of inflation, income is changing, if income has doubled, I believe the price we are not a problem. In fact, apart from a few high-income groups, and ordinary people have a few people there over the past decade income doubled? I know, there are some monopolies, finance, oil, and so their income is very high, but not all are high-income people, but people feel this revenue growth each year, more than 10% point. This may be concentrated in a few people, few people may not be 10% but by dozens, most people may be zero, even negative. Even if your salary has doubled, your mortgage capacity or to a cumulative process. Even if your salary suddenly rise up, not months, to buy a first down can accumulate, but also for several years Caixing. before more than 30 million can buy in Guangzhou an ideal house, now more than 30 million can pay a down payment, which is totally different concepts. what we do come back say, 2002,2003 in Guangzhou with the nature of the current difference? is the degree of urbanization, the MTR has already begun at that time built, the construction of all aspects of the urbanization level of the difference with now is not great. So, I think there is still cyclical changes in real estate, unless inflation makes people's income has doubled. but if you put the income caused by inflation growth removed, the price should still be restored.
we can see that Hong Kong's real estate market, each periodic change will bring more than 50% decline. If we are the market also appears that the case, Many people will consider the problem of negative equity. There is now a magazine raised the issue to be concerned about negative equity, when house prices fell by more than three or two into, you will become negative assets. This does not mean negative equity financing in general no debt, you owe the bank money, you sold your assets or liabilities. your first price drop was all over, how much you lower and lower the number is negative. This is not an ordinary insolvent, but refer back to your bank after the sale of assets still owes the bank money.
Moderator: Can you specifically talk about, to what extent it just like we expect the same?
Han with: I feel that housing prices in the suburbs over ten thousand is not normal, and now developers get the land cost is very low; Country Garden, they do well, they profit growth rate is very high. outskirts of thousands and even to twenty thousand is not normal, if financial pressure so they have to sell is not. Liwan in urban areas is relatively good, all real estate price gap is not large, Yuexiu, Tianhe and Baiyun is quite volatile, there are some real estate Tingbu Zhu on the price, some real estate to wait and see, some real estate is then reduced. the central area of the first adjustment in place than the suburbs because the suburbs is still very high profits.
Moderator: media reports this, during May to present a report on many aspects of the property market is not very sing up attitude, dark period has passed. you for your words of Wang and Li Lian is how to think? position on the two bosses stand the phenomenon, but also how to see it?
Han with: the media mentioned this, I want to say something to the media some of the views in this regard, the media often operate by developers, is attitude can be seen from the media's position papers, each paper has a position and I hope that the media is more neutral, objective, of course, will be his tendency. I think we should allow different voices are also present, but You can do some processing, so consumers will make the time to look at this newspaper is not the same feeling. I compare various media every week this point of view and caliber, so I am very touched, and which the media during this is how to see, this media stand, viewpoint and attitude towards how? media, this change is normal, and is based on market changes and to changes in various aspects of change. but I hope that there is a media there are different voices, so that you can be more objective, more free, more diverse information which to cultivate and enhance their ability to judge, I think this is better.
Vanke I have already mentioned several times, I do not Vanke is intended that through this position to dictate and affect the overall market, I think if Vanke to do so, it is not wise to act. if what you say can not be honored, then to a position of authority you will have a significant impact a; There is also a Li Lian as a real estate trade associations may be the role of the appeal statement. I also saw an article online written by very good, from their point of view of that Wang can be said now is a capital case , but now the R & F has not the capital. R & F chain now has a lot of money problems, A shares can not listed, go to the operation of large commercial projects, the real estate market is better though withdrawn from circulation. because the R & F with the million in the market strategy Division is similar, but not in the residential side of mainstream products, recently turned to commercial product sales, in the current real estate market is not particularly optimistic about the situation, not a particularly good time to sell, unless you sell at low prices This sell-off would also affect his sales strategy. Now, Li Lian he hoped the intervention of public opinion to change people's expectations, I think, although an effort is futile can not say, but I think the results will not be very good , but you can play the role of municipal care. before I came across this state will take the initiative, tit for tat, if you change to that angle, it was just as can the market be appropriately care about, and will not drop too fast.
Moderator: This year's prices and still high compared to last year. In May, the focus of blog which many people are writing their own views on the property market in May, we see that, all the property market for the May Day evaluation and expectations are not very optimistic about the future of housing prices is expected to take the downstream channel is relatively strong, Han always your blog is very clear that there is price, you that can not crash, or to decline, this increase should be how to make it ?
Han with: Strictly speaking, the average price this year has dropped to 20%, and also 10% lower and lower, then the year must be reduced about 30%.
Moderator: But look at the price now with the same period last year still high compared to.
Han with: is that, if returned to the same level as last year, then annual average price of 8500 yuan / sq m, the lowest price necessary to 7,500 yuan / square meter or so. If this then, it has been fully constituted tumbled. So far, we can not rule out the housing slump that possibility, because we do not know the status of the second half look like, here is to have the prerequisite, such as whether there will be financial crises the economic crisis, if these are unavoidable, then, only waiting for the emergence of this result.
if the current economic difficulties can not be resolved, then, including the stock market, the economic structure of the situation, and now all the problems, all of what makes the entire economic structure becomes less reasonable. If you let the market adjust, then there will be crisis, the credit has been biased in favor of the past, real estate, and when a problem the industry will pose a great risk. This risk should be has not been fully released, we have not yet overcome this.
I often jump to see the real estate industry, I feel not very optimistic. Not long ago I heard many times in the president of the Society 顾云昌stresses three basic change, one is the situation in China's development, the second is long term bullish on the real estate situation will not change, the third is a small place with more money will not change the situation. I talk to him privately, you three remain unchanged from the negative side I can prove that it is changing. If the situation is changing all the time, the real estate in order to change it is very difficult.
why I been so highly of China Vanke? I think they are really high, they can seize market opportunities, to have such forward-looking sense, even if I am wrong to make such precautions, there is no loss; but the things you do not do to miss this opportunity to the . Hengda post such a large range of prices and benefits? but it was listed when they are down for not too good, but also because it is the most popular time of sale price determined by the same Vanke also have this similar situation exists However, the volume of Vanke high disk is not large, but low-key approach, comfort was very good, so as not to affect overall sales.
commitment I have always thought the price difference is not such thing as compensation for the obligations of the developer . but you if not handled properly, will affect the company's brand, reputation, integrity, etc., that the fundamental point of financial compensation can not cover the brand by the hit, or even your potential and field are likely to be affected. I saw Hengda has a really fierce momentum phase, when the market is temporary. If not the Hong Kong stock market so bad, they will do well. I do not think the IPO has been suspended from their problem, as early as six months if they This operation, I think it may again become the world's largest aircraft carrier. But the timing is not good, it's very nice to do a few moves. But that thing just in different circumstances when it becomes foul strokes, should not spend so much money is spent. They did not catch a good time to move forward if a little half the time, is now the most imposing them.
dig pits I have talked about the theory behind you with no effect on the; others take the lead down to the front of the consumers are consumed, lower and lower when you have no effects. can only continue to be, but this way, then it becomes more price competitive. My theory is actually a dam game to learn prisoner's dilemma theory, but a number of trench fills nicely than an informer, who should go to the informant, anyone can profit, the price is bound to break this alliance was to go to. Vanke cut prices up to be scolded or two, there are no violations of law; the same ...
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